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FAILEDStated March 13, 2024source unconfirmed
Elon MuskCEO, Tesla & xAI
"AI will probably be smarter than any single human next year [2025]. By 2029, AI is probably smarter than all humans combined."
AGItimeline
Verdict
Did not happen
Deadline in claim
2025 (any human); 2029 (all humans)

Assessment

The 2025 component has passed: no AI system surpasses the smartest individual humans across all domains. The 2029 component remains open. Scored failed on the elapsed 2025 claim. Note: sourced to an X post not independently re-confirmed here.

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