Standards
Methodology & corrections
What this is
An independent, factual record of dated, public predictions made by public figures in AI about artificial intelligence. The goal is narrow: document what was claimed, when, with what deadline, and what actually happened — each backed by a link to the original. This is commentary and criticism of public statements, not a comment on anyone’s private life or character. Hits are scored the same as misses.
What qualifies for inclusion
Only statements that are (1) made publicly, (2) attributable to a specific source, and (3) concrete enough to be checked. Vague or purely rhetorical statements are either excluded or marked unfalsifiable and kept out of the scorecard. Opinions and policy proposals are not scored as predictions.
How sourcing works
Every entry links to at least one primary source. An entry is only marked verifiedafter its source has been independently confirmed to resolve to the cited content — for example, YouTube titles confirmed via the platform’s oEmbed endpoint and Substack posts confirmed by their published title. Entries sourced only to third-party reporting, or to a social post not yet re-confirmed, are shown but labelled source unconfirmed and excluded from the headline track record.
How the verdicts work
- Came true — the dated claim happened within its window.
- Did not happen — the deadline passed and it did not occur.
- Partial — mixed — part correct, part not.
- Pending — the deadline has not yet arrived; not yet scored.
- Unfalsifiable — no fixed deadline or too vague to ever be checked; logged but never scored.
How the hit rate is calculated
The headline percentage covers only verified entries that have reached their deadline (came true, did not happen, or partial). A partial counts as half a hit. Pending and unfalsifiable entries are not included in the denominator, so the number reflects resolved, checkable forecasts only.
Corrections policy
Accuracy is the entire point. If a quote is misattributed, a date is wrong, a source is dead, or an outcome has changed, the entry will be corrected or removed. Send the entry, the specific error, and a source for the correction. Substantive corrections are noted on the entry rather than quietly edited.
Independence & fair use
This project is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or operated on behalf of any individual tracked here. Short quotations are reproduced for commentary, criticism, and reporting. All links point to the original publications so readers can read each statement in full context.