FULFILLEDStated April 9, 2024
Gary MarcusAI researcher; author of “Marcus on AI”
"$1 million (later raised to $10M) says" AI will not be smarter than any individual human by the end of 2025.
AGItimeline
- Verdict
- Came true
- Deadline in claim
- Dec 31, 2025
Assessment
The deadline has passed with no AI system that surpasses the best humans across all intellectual work; no ‘human-superior AGI’ was demonstrated. Scored fulfilled — the skeptical call held (and the wager went untaken).
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