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FULFILLEDStated December 25, 2022
Gary MarcusAI researcher; author of “Marcus on AI”
Seven predictions about GPT-4: it would still hallucinate, remain unreliable at physical/psychological/mathematical reasoning, not give reliable medical advice, and not be safely hooked up to downstream programs.
LLM limitsreliability
Verdict
Came true
Deadline in claim
On GPT-4's release (2023)

Assessment

GPT-4 and its successors still hallucinate, remain unreliable on hard reasoning, are not trusted for unsupervised medical advice, and need guardrails downstream. Widely judged correct. Scored fulfilled — a skeptical call that held.

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Primary sources

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