PARTIALStated January 1, 2025
Gary MarcusAI researcher; author of “Marcus on AI”
For 2025: no AGI; under ~10% of the workforce replaced by AI; driverless cars still geographically limited; possibly no community-consensus ‘GPT-5-level’ leap.
AGIjobsindustry
- Verdict
- Partially correct
- Deadline in claim
- End of 2025
Assessment
Largely borne out: no AGI in 2025, limited workforce replacement, still-geofenced robotaxis. The ‘no GPT-5-level leap’ piece is contested — GPT-5 shipped (Aug 2025) but Marcus called it underwhelming. Scored partial (mostly correct).
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