PENDINGStated September 23, 2024
Sam AltmanCEO, OpenAI
"It is possible that we will have superintelligence in a few thousand days (!); it may take longer, but I'm confident we'll get there."
superintelligencetimeline
- Verdict
- Deadline not reached
- Deadline in claim
- “A few thousand days” (~2027–2035)
Assessment
“A few thousand days” is only loosely bounded (roughly 2027–2035). The window is open, so the claim is not yet scoreable — and the vagueness makes it hard to ever falsify cleanly.
Put this through The Wringer →Primary sources
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