FAILEDStated March 2023
David ShapiroAI commentator & author
"In 18 months any possible definition of AGI that you have will be satisfied." Shapiro framed this as AGI arriving within 18 months of March 2023 — i.e. by roughly September 2024.
AGItimeline
- Verdict
- Did not happen
- Deadline in claim
- By ~September 2024
Assessment
As of mid-2026 no AI system satisfies a mainstream definition of AGI, let alone "any possible definition." The 18-month window closed in late 2024 with no such system. Outcome: did not happen.
Put this through The Wringer →Primary sources
- YouTube"AGI within 18 months" explained with a boatload of papers and projects2023-03 ↗
- Third-party articleAGI will appear in 1.5 years, says David Shapiro (Metaverse Post) ↗
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